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Prediction of recurrence risk in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer |
Niloufar Ahmadia,Hamid Shafeea,Emaduddin Moudib,*( )
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aDepartment of Urology, School of Medicine, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran bDepartment of Surgery, Cancer Research Center, Health Research Institute, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran |
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Abstract Objective: Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) remains a common challenge in uro-oncology with conflicting reports on recurrence risk. This study aimed to elucidate the recurrence rate of NMIBC in the Cancer Clinic of Shahid Beheshti Hospital in Iran and to investigate related parameters affecting recurrence risk. Methods: The data of 143 patients with NMIBC, who underwent treatment between January 2017 and January 2020 and were followed up from the initial transurethral resection of bladder tumor until November 30, 2020 in our institution, were retrospectively assessed. The Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier plot of recurrence-free survival were used to determine independent contributing factors for tumor recurrence. Results: Among patients with NMIBC, 83.9% were male, and 16.1% were female, with a mean age of 64.4 (standard deviation [SD] 12.9) years. During the follow-up, 71 (49.7%) patients showed tumor recurrence, with a mean recurrence time of 11.5 (SD 6.9) months. In the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, the age (≥65 years) (p=0.037), obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) (p=0.004), no diabetes mellitus (p=0.005), smoking (current or former smoker) (p=0.001), immediate perfusion therapy (p=0.035), number of tumors (>3) (p<0.001), and tumor stage (Ta, T1, and Tis) (p=0.001) had independent significant effects on the recurrence of NMIBC. The multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that preoperative obesity (hazards ratio [HR] 7.90; 95% confidential interval [CI] 4.01-15.55; p<0.001), current or former smoking (HR 1.85; 95% CI 1.07-3.20; p=0.027), and a high-grade tumor (HR 4.03; 95% CI 1.59-10.25; p=0.003) were significant predictors of tumor recurrence. The Kaplan-Meier plot of recurrence-free survival showed that obesity (log-rank p<0.001), current or former smoking (log-rank p=0.001), and a high-grade tumor (log-rank p=0.006) were associated with a shorter time interval until the first tumor recurrence. Conclusion: The study found a high recurrence rate of NMIBC in Iran from January 2017 to January 2020, with the obesity, smoking history, and the high-grade tumor as contributing factors.
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Received: 30 January 2023
Available online: 20 October 2024
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Corresponding Authors:
*E-mail address: emoudi@mubabol.ac.ir (E. Moudi).
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Characteristic | Patient (n=143) | Non-recurrence tumor (n=72) | Recurrence tumor (n=71) | p-Valuea | Age, year | | | | | <65 | 75 (52.4) | 44 (61.1) | 31 (43.7) | NR | ≥65 | 68 (47.6) | 28 (38.9) | 40 (56.3) | 0.037 | Gender | | | | 0.849 | Female | 23 (16.1) | 12 (16.7) | 11 (15.5) | | Male | 120 (83.9) | 60 (83.3) | 60 (84.5) | | BMI, kg/m2 | | | | | <30 | 106 (74.1) | 61 (84.7) | 45 (63.4) | NR | ≥30 | 37 (25.9) | 11 (15.3) | 26 (36.6) | 0.004 | Diabetes mellitus | | | | | Yes | 121 (84.6) | 67 (93.1) | 54 (76.1) | NR | No | 22 (15.4) | 5 (6.9) | 17 (23.9) | 0.005 | Smoking history | | | | | Current or former smoker | 66 (46.2) | 23 (31.9) | 43 (60.6) | 0.001 | Never smoker | 77 (53.8) | 49 (68.1) | 28 (39.4) | NR | Tumor size, cm | | | | 0.001 | <3 | 63 (44.1) | 42 (58.3) | 21 (29.6) | | ≥3 | 80 (55.9) | 30 (41.7) | 50 (70.4) | | Number of tumor | | | | | 1-3 | 55 (38.5) | 41 (56.9) | 14 (19.7) | NR | >3 | 88 (61.5) | 31 (43.1) | 57 (80.3) | <0.001 | Tumor grade | | | | 0.060 | Low | 27 (18.9) | 18 (25.0) | 9 (12.7) | | High | 116 (81.1) | 54 (75.0) | 62 (87.3) | | Tumor stage | | | | 0.001 | Ta | 85 (59.4) | 52 (72.2) | 33 (46.5) | | T1 | 28 (19.6) | 6 (8.3) | 22 (31.0) | | Tis (CIS) | 30 (21.0) | 14 (19.4) | 16 (22.5) | | Immediate infusion therapy | | | | | Yes | 78 (54.5) | 33 (45.8) | 45 (63.4) | 0.035 | No | 65 (45.5) | 39 (54.2) | 26 (36.6) | NR |
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Descriptive statistics of patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer between January 2017 and January 2020 at a tertiary referral center.
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Variable | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | HR (95% CI) | p-Value | HR (95% CI) | p-Value | Age, year | <65 | 1.00 | Ref | NA | NA | ≥65 | 0.92 (0.58-1.48) | 0.743 | NA | NA | BMI, kg/m2 | <30 | 1.00 | Ref | 1.00 | Ref | ≥30 | 4.31 (2.47-7.53) | <0.001 | 7.90 (4.01-15.55) | <0.001 | Diabetes mellitus | Yes | 1.03 (0.58-1.82) | 0.917 | NA | NA | No | 1.00 | Ref | NA | NA | Smoking history | Current or former smoker | 2.30 (1.35-3.90) | 0.002 | 1.85 (1.07-3.20) | 0.027 | Never smoker | 1.00 | Ref | 1.00 | Ref | Alcohol intake | Yes | 1.38 (0.751-2.54) | 0.299 | NA | NA | No | 1.00 | Ref | NA | NA | Tumor size, cm | <3 | 1.00 | Ref | NA | NA | ≥3 | 1.32 (0.773-2.25) | 0.310 | NA | NA | Number of tumor | 1-3 | 1.00 | Ref | NA | NA | >3 | 1.22 (0.68-2.21) | 0.506 | NA | NA | Tumor grade | Low | 1.00 | Ref | 1.00 | Ref | High | 2.58 (1.21-5.53) | 0.014 | 4.03 (1.59-10.25) | 0.003 | Tumor stage | Ta | 1.00 | Ref | NA | NA | T1 | 1.41 (0.81-2.45) | 0.222 | NA | NA | Tis (CIS) | 1.62 (0.87-3.01) | 1.30 | NA | NA | Immediate infusion therapy | Yes | 0.90 (0.55-1.48) | 0.688 | NA | NA | No | 1.00 | Ref | NA | NA |
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The Cox regression analyses predicting for the risk of recurrence in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer between January 2017 and January 2020 at a tertiary referral center.
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The Kaplan-Meier plot of recurrence-free survival of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer with obesity (log-rank p<0.001). BMI, body mass index.
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The Kaplan-Meier plot of recurrence-free survival of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer with and without history of cigarette smoking (log-rank p=0.001).
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The Kaplan-Meier plot of recurrence-free survival of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer with high-grade tumor and low-grade tumor (log-rank p=0.006).
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